Truce Breaks Down

27%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The mine death becomes part of a broader blame exchange, and local forces resume fire around Oleshky and nearby Dnipro approaches. The breakdown would be serious for civilians but still geographically limited.

What it moves

Industrials+0.2%
Market volatility▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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