Possible scenario
Limited Naval Clashes
30% Chance
Iran tests the coalition mission with drones, speedboats, electronic warfare, or warning shots while avoiding a full-scale attack. The strait remains contested, keeping oil risk premia elevated and global markets defensive.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.9%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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