Possible scenario
Coalition Reopening Succeeds
35% Chance
The most likely near-term path is a controlled U.S.-French-led naval operation that restores limited commercial passage without triggering a major Iranian retaliation. France's participation gives the mission broader legitimacy and may deter Iran from directly attacking European-flagged or escorted vessels.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.4%
- Consumer Services +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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