Possible scenario
Diplomatic Off-Ramp
20% Chance
The wider coalition raises the cost of continued Iranian obstruction and creates an opening for Oman, Qatar, or the UN to broker a temporary arrangement. Iran may accept monitored passage in exchange for talks on oil exports, sanctions waivers, or frozen funds.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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