Democratic Senate Control

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Democrats convert the four GOP losses into a narrow Senate majority, with Chuck Schumer returning as majority leader. The most likely path is Democratic wins in North Carolina and Texas, plus at least two additional pickups in states where Trump-backed nominees underperformed suburban and independent voters.

What it moves

Finance−1.4%
Energy−1.2%
10-year Treasury yield▼ down
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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