Possible scenario
Energy Assets Disrupted
25% Chance
A subsequent Ansar Allah strike or debris impact reaches energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province or at Yanbu. Even a short operational halt raises memories of the 2019 Abqaiq attack and pushes crude prices higher.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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