Possible scenario
Contained Saudi Response
45% Chance
Saudi Arabia absorbs the near-Dammam strike and answers with limited coalition air raids on Ansar Allah launch sites in Yemen. Oil exports continue normally, but the higher frequency of attacks keeps a security premium in crude and weighs on Saudi aviation and tourism sentiment.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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