Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
15% Chance
Oman, the UN, and possibly the United States push Riyadh and Ansar Allah toward a pause after the deadly Riyadh airport attack and the near-Dammam strike. Saudi Arabia does not concede lost Yemen territory immediately, but it may accept a limited security arrangement to reduce attacks on cities and oil infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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