Possible scenario
Regional Spread Alarm
15% Chance
The outbreak appears larger than initially acknowledged, with suspected contacts outside the first quarantined hospitals. Neighboring states tighten health checks, and investors price a small but visible regional travel and confidence shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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