Possible scenario
Managed International Response
20% Chance
Moscow allows limited outside technical engagement while preserving political control of the narrative. The response reduces worst-case uncertainty but keeps attention on medical supply chains, diagnostics, and cross-border screening.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Healthcare +0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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