Possible scenario
Contained Siberian Cluster
55% Chance
Russian authorities keep the outbreak largely confined to the five quarantined Siberian hospitals and nearby contacts. Pneumonic plague is highly dangerous but treatable with rapid antibiotics, making containment more likely than an uncontrolled national epidemic.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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