Yes Majority Emerges

A Yes vote is plausible given the qualified petition, Smith's support for a citizen-triggered referendum, and anger over federal energy policy. Even if Yes wins, the vote would not automatically create independence; Ottawa would rely on the Clarity Act, the Supreme Court secession reference, Indigenous treaty rights, and constitutional amendment requirements to contain the process.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.