Possible scenario
Result Is Disputed
14% Chance
A close or procedurally contested vote could prevent a clean political outcome. Challenges may focus on petition validity, referendum wording, campaign finance, turnout rules, or whether a citizen-triggered vote can compel the province to act on secession.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.