Possible scenario
Federalist No Wins
44% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Albertans vote against secession once the immediate economic, legal, Indigenous-rights, and currency uncertainties are weighed. Ottawa and Premier Danielle Smith then pivot toward energy infrastructure, emissions-cap concessions, and provincial autonomy talks rather than a constitutional rupture.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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