Possible scenario
Mediated Deal Reached
45% Chance
Taiwan's presidential intervention helps push Micron and the Taoyuan union into a settlement before a full strike begins. This is the most likely outcome because Taiwan has strong incentives to protect its AI semiconductor supply chain while avoiding a precedent of unmanaged labor disruption at a strategic facility.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.7%
Tickers
- MU+2.9%
- NVDA+0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.