Prolonged HBM Disruption

Negotiations break down and the strike lasts long enough to disrupt Micron's primary HBM output. This is less likely because Taiwan's government, Micron management, and AI customers all have strong incentives to force a compromise, but the union's strike mandate makes it plausible.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.