Possible scenario
Political Backlash Builds
20% Chance
The focus on non-criminal immigrants creates visible family-separation and workplace-arrest stories, increasing pressure on city governments and members of Congress. The administration keeps the policy in place, but political and operational friction rises.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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