Possible scenario
Surge Continues Nationally
35% Chance
DHS and ICE maintain the new interior-arrest posture and treat non-criminal removability as a core enforcement category rather than an error. The 45-day California operation becomes a template for sanctuary-city operations in Illinois, New York, Massachusetts, and Washington.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.4%
- Business Services -0.2%
Tickers
- GEO+3.7%
- CXW+3.2%
- TSN-0.9%
- -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.