Possible scenario
Private Policing Holds
45% Chance
The administration turns the September U.S.-China AI dialogue into a largely dormant channel and leans on private-sector peer monitoring instead. This is the most likely path because it aligns with Trump's deregulation stance while avoiding an immediate rupture in AI supply chains.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
- Business Services +0.3%
Tickers
- MSFT+0.7%
- META+0.7%
- NVDA+0.5%
- AMZN-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.