Possible scenario
Backchannel Survives
15% Chance
Public cooperation is rejected, but U.S. national-security officials preserve a narrow crisis-management channel with China to prevent accidental escalation involving autonomous systems or cyber incidents. This outcome reflects the tension between campaign-style rhetoric and the practical need for deconfliction.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
Tickers
- AMD+0.7%
- NVDA+0.7%
- +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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