Possible scenario
AI Decoupling Accelerates
30% Chance
Trump's rejection of cooperation hardens into a broader decoupling push covering advanced chips, cloud compute, model weights, and AI services. This is plausible because the prior warning from U.S. AI executives about Chinese models gives the administration political cover for tougher controls.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.1%
- Industrials -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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