Regional Escalation
−3.3%
Iran decides that renewed U.S. strike planning is itself a prelude to attack and moves first or retaliates heavily after initial strikes. This is a lower-probability but high-impact path because it directly threatens U.S. forces, Gulf shipping, and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
What it moves
- Energy+8.2%
- Consumer Services−7.2%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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