Serious Election Incident
−1.3%
A significant cyber or influence operation exploits the weakened federal posture and disrupts public reporting in several competitive states. Even if voting records remain intact, uncertainty over certification and possible litigation creates a material but not systemic market shock.
What it moves
- Technology−1.7%
- Finance−1.4%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.