• 

  45%

  +0.4%

  States Fill Gap

  Most state election offices, the Election Infrastructure Information Sharing and Analysis Center, and National Guard cyber units absorb the reduced CISA role. Reporting delays and phishing attempts occur, but no major compromise of voter registration, tabulation, or results-reporting systems is verified.

  Technology +0.5% · Business Services +0.1%

• 

  30%

  −0.5%

  Localized Election Friction

  Reduced federal coordination leaves some counties more exposed to denial-of-service attacks, phishing, and AI-generated false claims. Voting and tabulation continue, but delayed unofficial results and inconsistent public communication create a short-lived political-risk premium.

  Technology −0.5% · Finance −0.3% · Business Services +0.1%

• 

  15%

  +0.5%

  Oversight Reverses Cuts

  Congressional pressure, state complaints, and litigation force the administration to partially restore election-infrastructure support. The result is a modest confidence boost and a clearer path for federal cyber spending, though political conflict over CISA remains.

  Technology +0.8% · Business Services +0.5%

• 

  10%

  −1.3%

  Serious Election Incident

  A significant cyber or influence operation exploits the weakened federal posture and disrupts public reporting in several competitive states. Even if voting records remain intact, uncertainty over certification and possible litigation creates a material but not systemic market shock.

  Technology −1.7% · Finance −1.4% · Consumer Cyclicals −1.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.