Possible scenario
Threat Stalls Politically
28% Chance
Trump allies keep advocating aggressive intervention, but the plan remains a pressure campaign rather than a deployed operation. Republican governors, state election officials, and Senate leaders divide over the legality and political cost of involving federal forces in ballot handling.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -2.1%
- Technology -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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