Possible scenario
Limited Seizures Attempted
20% Chance
A limited operation is attempted in several contested jurisdictions, likely framed as evidence preservation rather than full national martial law. The probability is lower than institutional containment because it requires cooperation from federal law enforcement or National Guard chains of command, but recent statements make it a plausible escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -4.2%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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