Institutions Block Move

The most likely outcome is that federal agencies, state officials, courts, and military lawyers prevent any martial-law ballot seizure from becoming operational. The Supreme Court's September ruling against Trump mail-ballot restrictions gives lower courts a clear basis to issue emergency orders, while Pentagon and Justice Department lawyers have strong incentives to avoid unlawful election involvement.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.