Possible scenario
Limited Regional Escalation
30% Chance
The Turkish offer becomes part of a coordinated trilateral military response after the Riyadh airport and Yanbu strikes. The response remains below the threshold of a declared regional war, but markets price higher oil-supply and airspace risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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