Possible scenario
Defensive Deployment Contains
38% Chance
Turkey sends air-defense specialists, drone-surveillance units, and liaison officers to Saudi Arabia under the Mecca pact, while Riyadh avoids immediate large-scale retaliation. Markets treat the move as a deterrent that reduces the risk of repeated strikes on Saudi oil and aviation assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Consumer Services +0.8%
- Energy -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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