Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-escalation Track
20% Chance
Regional mediators use Turkey’s military offer as leverage to push the Houthis toward a pause in cross-border attacks. Saudi Arabia keeps Turkish aid on standby but prioritizes a diplomatic off-ramp to protect energy exports and aviation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.2%
- Energy -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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