• 

  45%0.0%

  Dispute Quietly Subsides

  The most likely path is that Politico’s correction satisfies the White House enough to avoid immediate escalation. The administration may continue criticizing the story publicly, but the access fight does not become a broader legal or market-moving confrontation.

• 

  25%0.0%

  Press Pushback Builds

  Journalists, press-freedom groups, and rival outlets may treat the threat of unspecified consequences as a broader access and First Amendment issue. This would likely generate institutional pushback but little direct market impact.

  Consumer Services −0.1%

• 

  20%0.0%

  White House Escalates

  A less likely but plausible path is that the White House argues the correction is insufficient and threatens renewed access restrictions. This would be a political and media-sector event, not a broad macro shock.

  Consumer Services −0.5%

• 

  10%0.0%

  Wiles Story Reopens

  The correction may not end interest in the underlying story about Susie Wiles, Zacharia, and reported efforts to identify replacements for the chief of staff. This scenario would keep the political intrigue alive but would still be too narrow to materially move macro markets.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.