Possible scenario
Saleh Loyalists Resist
20% Chance
Agila Saleh and allied parliamentarians reject the legality of the leadership vote, creating procedural confusion inside the HoR. The institutional split deepens, but the dispute initially remains political rather than military.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.