Possible scenario
Haftar Consolidates East
25% Chance
Saleh's replacement becomes a vehicle for Khalifa Haftar and his sons to increase control over eastern political institutions. The HoR remains functional, but it takes a harder line toward Tripoli, oil revenue distribution and foreign security relationships.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Tickers
- -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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