Possible scenario
Managed HoR Transition
40% Chance
The House of Representatives absorbs Agila Saleh's removal through an internal bargain rather than a wider institutional rupture. Khalifa Haftar and eastern power brokers accept the new speaker so long as the HoR's leverage over budgets, appointments and oil revenues is preserved.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Tickers
- TTE+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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