Possible scenario
Escalation Reversal
15% Chance
A more severe path is that the stand-down is overtaken by protests, isolated violence, or a White House reversal. This would revive fears that Trump could use emergency powers despite Hegseth's initial order and would create the sharpest immediate market stress.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -3.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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