Possible scenario
Stand-Down Holds
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Hegseth's order remains in force and active-duty military units avoid any direct role in polling places or ballot transport. The order lowers immediate fears of Insurrection Act use, while leaving election administration to states, courts, and civilian law enforcement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.0%
- Finance +0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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