Possible scenario
Civilian Agents Persist
25% Chance
The military stand-down does not settle the fight over armed federal personnel because the order does not bind DOJ, DHS, or deputized civilian agents. Litigation by Democrats and voting-rights groups becomes the main venue for determining what federal presence is allowed during October voting.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
- Technology -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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