Possible scenario
Rhetoric Stays Contained
55% Chance
Putin's statement is treated by Washington, Brussels, and Kyiv as coercive signaling rather than preparation for imminent nuclear use. NATO maintains surveillance and air-defense support for Ukraine but avoids public steps that would suggest a direct NATO-Russia confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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