Possible scenario
Managed Military Escalation
25% Chance
Moscow follows the nuclear warning with visible but bounded military signaling, such as strategic-force exercises, missile deployments, or intensified strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. NATO responds with higher readiness and surveillance, but both sides avoid direct engagement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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