Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pressure Builds
12% Chance
China, Turkey, India, and several European governments press Moscow and Washington to reduce nuclear rhetoric. The diplomatic track does not end the Ukraine war, but it lowers the perceived chance of near-term nuclear escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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