Tax Measure Defeated

The most likely outcome is that the large opposition campaign, already at $227 million, persuades enough voters that the 5% tax would drive wealth, founders, and investment out of California. Sanders, Khanna, unions, and the California Democratic Party keep the race competitive, but business groups and wealthy donors dominate paid media.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.