Possible scenario
Compromise Replaces Measure
20% Chance
Labor groups and Democratic leaders could revive the smaller compromise floated in June, especially if polling shows the 5% tax vulnerable. A lower rate, narrower base, or phased implementation would let advocates claim progress while reducing business opposition.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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