Possible scenario
Original Tax Passes
25% Chance
A progressive turnout surge and simple messaging on wealth inequality carry the 5% billionaire tax despite the opposition’s massive spending advantage. Passage would raise questions about residency planning, founder mobility, and legal challenges from affected wealthy individuals.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.9%
- Finance -0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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