Possible scenario
Conditional Peace Opening
38% Chance
Moscow does not accept the plan outright but signals enough interest to keep a US-led process alive. This is the most likely near-term outcome because Putin can preserve leverage while testing whether Washington will press Kyiv on territorial and sanctions issues.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Finance +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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