Possible scenario
Diplomatic Stalemate
32% Chance
Witkoff delivers the plan, but Putin avoids a clear yes or no while Russia and Ukraine continue fighting. This outcome fits the history of stalled negotiations and allows all sides to claim they remain open to diplomacy.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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