Possible scenario
Russian Rejection
18% Chance
Putin concludes the plan does not meet Russia's minimum demands and uses the meeting to restate maximalist conditions. The rejection would be a negative geopolitical surprise after the Oslo and Miami diplomatic activity, but not a systemic crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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