War Premium Stabilizes

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Brent remains close to the UBS year-end forecast as traders price persistent but contained disruption risk around the Strait of Hormuz. Physical supply is tight, but the forecast is near prevailing spot levels, limiting the immediate cross-asset reaction.

What it moves

Energy+0.1%
Market volatility▲ up
Oil prices▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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