Hormuz Escalation

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

A renewed disruption to tanker flows or insurance availability in the Gulf makes UBS’s $110 forecast look conservative. Markets price a larger geopolitical supply premium, with energy shares outperforming and transport-linked sectors under pressure.

What it moves

Energy+2.1%
Consumer Services−1.0%
Market volatility▲ up
Oil prices▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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