Possible scenario
Quota Compromise
+0.7%
Beijing and Washington avoid a full confrontation by allowing controlled H200 imports under quotas or case-by-case customs approvals. China preserves leverage over domestic buyers while preventing an abrupt capacity shortfall for AI developers.
What it moves
- Technology+1.0%
- Market volatility
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.