Possible scenario
Controls Escalate
−1.6%
The Hong Kong pileup becomes the first step in a broader export-control confrontation. China may formalize restrictions on Nvidia purchases while the U.S. and Taiwan tighten rules around transshipment and advanced-chip servicing.
What it moves
- Technology−2.6%
- Telecommunications−0.3%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
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